Preview: UFC 316 Prelims

Light Heavyweights
Azamat Murzakanov (14-0) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (17-7, 1 N/C)
Odds: Murzakanov (-575), Ribeiro (+425)

After a surprising two-fight winning streak, Ribeiro gets a massive opportunity here. Ribeiro had a solid international career but wasn't exactly knocking down the door for a UFC call ahead of the Contender Series in 2023; the Brazilian's approach consisted of leveraging his speed to try and hunt for an immediate knockout, and that tended to backfire as much as it worked against high-level opposition. But while Ribeiro was brought in as a clear B-side in his Contender Series fight, he made his shot count, scoring a quick finish to earn a contract. It looked like Ribeiro would quickly slide out of the UFC after losing his first two fights, but he seems to have found some surprising success with a minor adjustment; Ribeiro is still messy when it comes to throwing out his actual offense, but he's now much more patient in terms of staying at range and picking his spots, forcing his opponents to open themselves up first. A decision win over Caio Machado wasn't necessarily a shock given Machado's own issues, but Ribeiro pulled off a massive upset against top prospect Diyar Nurgozhay this past March, frustrating Nurgozhay before surprisingly finding a second-round submission. Less than three months later, Ribeiro steps in on late notice against Azamat Murzakanov, which figures to be an uphill battle for the Brazilian. Murzakanov would likely be more highly thought of if he simply stayed active; due to various issues, he's struggled to make it to the Octagon more than once per calendar year since signing in 2021. But when "The Professional" does make it to the cage, it's impressive to watch him work; the Russian doesn't stand out athletically as a short and squat light heavyweight, but possesses an elite level of timing and accuracy, landing hard offense that helps stall his opponent's momentum until the point that Murzakanov can find a finish. It's not a shock that Murzakanov has multiple third-round finishes inside of the UFC, and this one might not take that long; Ribeiro's new approach might be able to frustrate a lot of light heavyweights, but it seems built to give Murzakanov ample time and opportunity to feel things out and find a knockout. The pick is Murzakanov via second-round knockout.

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