Preview: UFC 316 ‘Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2’

Welterweights
Vicente Luque (23-10-1) vs. Kevin Holland (27-13, 1 NC)
Odds: Holland (-265), Luque (+215)

Holland's second stint down at welterweight got off to a strong start, and "Trailblazer" looks to keep that momentum going in an interesting matchup here. An entertaining but inconsistent middleweight upon his UFC debut, Holland was an unlikely breakout star in the early days of the pandemic-era UFC; he was willing to step in as often as possible to fight as the promotion threw together cards on late notice, and his penchant for trash talking was a perfect fit for the otherwise silent atmosphere of the UFC Apex. Add in that Holland kept winning, and the hope entering 2021 was that he could make the jump from fan favorite into a true title contender. Instead, Holland hit a clear ceiling, mostly due to his issues with defensive wrestling; underrated at times as a grappler, Holland fell into the classic trap of trying to make things happen on the mat rather than get to where he's most effective. A winless 2021 resulted in Holland dropping down to welterweight, which was a mixed bag; now absolutely massive in his new division, Holland leaned on his physical skills to find some success as a cruder slugger than in the past, but still eventually hit another ceiling against opponents with more technical skill. Now seemingly without a division, Holland went back to 185 pounds for a brief run that was the worst of both worlds, as he failed to rediscover his technical acumen while also again struggling against stronger wrestlers, to the point that his March return to welterweight against Gunnar Nelson felt like a must-win. There were still some of the usual issues, but Holland overall put in a strong performance, leaning on his size and skill enough to hang with Nelson on the mat while also clearly being the more potent striker, something he'll look to repeat here against Vicente Luque. After a worrying few years, it's been nice to see that Luque isn't entirely done as a high-level welterweight. For years, "The Silent Assassin" had a case as the best-kept secret on the UFC roster, a consistently violent pressure fighter that racked up a ton of wins in the first few years of his UFC career. It wasn't until a 2019 fight of the year contender against Bryan Barberena - nearly four years after Luque's UFC debut - that he seemed to finally get some notice and promotional momentum, after which point he thrived as a welcome addition to any card, perennially staying on the verge of title contention while putting on one of the most violent fights of the night. But then came a 2022 loss to Geoff Neal that went about as poorly as possible; Neal can be a one-dimensional fighter as a pure headhunter at times, but his hand speed resulted in him teeing off at will on Luque until finding a particularly brutal knockout. That kept Luque out of action for over a year, at which point it was revealed he was trying to get medically cleared due to bleeding on his brain, a particularly worrying sign ahead of his 2023 return against Rafael dos Anjos. Since his comeback, Luque's generally looked solid, understandably taking a more patient approach that features a bit more wrestling and clinchwork, and a 52-second submission of Themba Gorimbo in December was a reminder that he still has some slick weapons in his back pocket. But a loss to Joaquin Buckley in March of last year was a bit worrying when it comes to Luque's ability to compete at a high level; Luque hung tough for about a round against a hard-hitting athlete in Buckley, but crumbled once things started to truly go south in the second frame. Admittedly, few welterweights have as much horsepower as Buckley, but it does raise some concerns here if Holland is able to eventually turn up the heat in the later rounds. Holland's lack of defensive awareness does raise the clear concern that he can dive into a submission, but the call is that he can survive enough to pour on enough offense to give Luque some second thoughts; the pick is Holland via second-round stoppage.

Jump To »
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley
Pena vs. Harrison
Gastelum vs. Pyfer
Bautista vs. Mix
Luque vs. Holland
The Prelims